Does the Chinese economy pose a threat to global financial stability?
Held on Wednesday, July 6, 2016
Michael Taylor (chief credit officer Asia Pacific, Moody's Investors Service)
Dr Jan Knoerich (Lau China Institute, King's College London)
Miller Guo (GF International Asset Management)
Miranda Carr (Haitong Securities)
What should we be talking about at this round-table?
Email your suggestions for the agenda to Harry Atkinson.
China is now firmly established as the No 2 economy in the world – and also as the No 1 wildcard, which (if things go wrong) can derail the global economy as it continues its halting recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.
But will things go wrong? Last year about this time, Michael Taylor – an old friend of the CSFI, and author of two reports on financial regulation for us, who is now an MD for Moody’s and chief credit officer for AsiaPac, based in Hong Kong – paid a visit to London, and expressed a fair degree of confidence that concerns were overblown. Since then, GDP growth seems to have settled down at 6-6.5%, un/under-employment seems not to be such a burning issue, and there is less concern (from Washington, at least) about the undervaluation of the renminbi. On the other hand, however, there is enormous concern (not least at the IMF) about excessive corporate debt – much of it accumulated by state-owned enterprises. And the threat of the “shadow” banks (particularly those offering so-called “wealth management” products) hasn’t gone away.
We are, therefore, delighted that Michael – who had a distinguished career at the BofE, the HKMA and the Central Bank of Bahrain before joining Moody’s – has agreed to give us his latest thinking, and to kick off a discussion on the Chinese economy and global financial stability more generally.
We are also delighted to have three distinguished panellists to set him straight (if needs be):
- Jan Knoerich is Lecturer in the Economy of China at the Lau China Institute, King’s College London. His research looks at Chinese outward foreign directive investment in particular. Previously he held posts at the University of Oxford and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Miller Guo is CEO of GF International, which focuses on two-way investment between China and Europe. GF Fund Management is one of the Top10 asset managers in China.
- Miranda Carr is head of China thematic research at Haitong Securities UK, and a former head of China research at North Square Blue Oak.
China is the elephant in the room as far as global economic prospects are concerned, and it cannot be ignored.