A round-table discussion on the macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook, with some of the City’s best-known strategists.
Held on Monday, April 25, 2016
With support from Dentons
George Magnus (UBS)
Keith Wade (Schroders)
Kevin Gardiner (Rothschild)
Neville Hill (Credit Suisse)
Simon French (Panmure Gordon)
Nick Carn (Carn Macro Advisors)
Report: Too Slow for Too Long? World Economic Outlook April 2016 (IMF)
Report: Global Economic Prospects 2016: Spillovers and Weak Growth (World Bank)
Report: World Economic Situation and Prospects 2016 (UN)
Article: Ten Questions for the Global Economy (Economonitor)
The world is a dangerous place… There’s Russia, Iran, Syria, China – all actually or potentially destabilising. There’s Brazil, Venezuela, Cuba – all at or beyond the cusp of political dysfunctionality. Then there’s QE, ZIRP (or NIRP), the intractable problem of low productivity, European demographics, the faltering Chinese economy…
You name it. Of course, we could (as we usually do) muddle through – and there are always ways for an investor to make an honest buck (even if many of us only see them in hindsight). But, as we hang on every word from Drs. Yellen and Draghi, things do look rather scary.
So, what can we do? A few years ago, the CSFI organised a “round-table within a round-table” – where a small group of City economists chatted among themselves, and a rather larger number of practitioners and observers sat in a second circle around them, intervening and questioning from time to time.
It seemed to work quite well, and we think it was an experiment that is worth repeating. Accordingly, we have put together a genuinely impressive group of City strategists to argue the toss on issues of global importance:
- George Magnus is now an independent economist, commentator and author (and Associate at Oxford University's China Centre), though most of us will remember him as chief economist and senior economic advisor at UBS (and, before that, at SG Warburg). Amongst many other coups, he is famous for having predicted a ‘Minsky moment’ in 2007.
- Kevin Gardiner is an MD and global investment strategist at Rothschild Wealth Management, which he joined in 2014 from Barclays Wealth, where was CIO for Europe.
- Keith Wade is chief economist at Schroders, responsible for the economics team and for the house view of the global economy.
- Neville Hill is an MD and head of the European economics team at Credit Suisse, responsible for coverage of Western Europe.
- Diana Choyleva is about to set up her own consultancy, after 16 years working for Lombard Street Research, most recently as their Chief Economist. She is well-known for her analysis of China, as well as for predicting the 2007 financial crisis.
- Simon French is chief economist at Panmure Gordon, which he joined in 2014 from the Cabinet Office (where he was chief of staff to the COO).}
- Nick Carn is the founder of Carn Macro, which he set up in 2010 after leaving Odey Asset Management, where he was a partner and chief investment strategist.
The idea is that the group will argue the toss on issues of great import to the wider investment community – and that the audience (representing that wider community) will, within reason, be able to interject and object.